Category: WWIT

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WWIT About the Election II

Just before the election I predicted that Biden would win in a landslide and that Republicans would be in the political wilderness for a generation. I was right about the winner but completely wrong about the magnitude. Except for losing the Presidency the Republicans had a pretty good day.

The Senate hasn’t been decided yet but I’m willing to predict that the Republicans will hold at least one of the seats in the runoff election in Georgia and will therefore control the Senate with 51 votes. Split government means either deadlock or compromise both of which are better than a move toward the progressive ideas in the Democrat platform.

We shall see. There is a lot of uncertainty about the economy because of Covid and it appears that it will continue to consume us until the spring. I’ll update WWIT (What Was I Thinking) about Covid in a few days.

Photo is Lilli touching a toad for good luck in Hawaii.

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WWIT About Covid 19

Covid 19, formerly The Corona Virus, is real but that there has been a massive overreaction to it. Back in March and April I predicted that the USA and the world would survive the Corona Virus and would in fact continue to thrive. I’m sticking with that prediction.

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WWIT About Unrest

“Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.”
Benjamin Franklin

I’ll start with a disclaimer. I don’t watch much news on TV and don’t listen to any on the radio. I read the WSJ, sometimes scan the news feed on Google and I read a few of the writers from National Review.
When I heard that reasonable protests about the killing of George Floyd had turned violent I wasn’t that surprised or alarmed. The pandemic has given too many people too much time. A few days later when I heard that the Apple Store that I go to had been looted I was a bit concerned. When the restaurant where I had a dinner reservation had closed because of the curfew I was inconvenienced. But I thought then and I still think now that there was reasonable cause to spark anger, and, to complete the metaphor, there is not enough tinder to turn discontent and sporadic rioting into a fire of insurrection.
As expected President Trump hasn’t helped. But neither have the media or the legions of people with TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome). After the Kent State killing about fifty years ago I was, as a returning Vietnam War Veteran, a leader of the protests in Schenectady NY. We disrupted traffic and felt like we were making a difference, then we went home and led our lives and I expect that the same thing will happen after this one dies down. As fires do when there isn’t enough kindling to get them to the next level.
At a deeper level I think that a big part of the problem is unreasonable expectations of respect and a good life promoted by politicians from the left and the right. The unpopular reality is that if you want prosperity you have to earn it. If you want respect you have to earn it. This system we have is a marvel at creating wealth I hope it doesn’t get destroyed by those who seek absolute fairness.

And now I paraphrase Franklin, with trepidation, “Those who would give up prosperity to purchase security deserve neither prosperity nor security.”

WWIT: What Was I Thinking

The photo is of a postcard I received from the “Keep Calm” series.

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WWIT About the Economy

The vast majority of our national wealth isn’t money or gold or real property or personal property. Our wealth is intellectual, intangible capital. We know how to do stuff, and that’s what makes us richer.

Why is this important? Because it explains why we can restart the economy after the COVID-19 shutdown. We know how to do stuff. We hit pause, to blunt the virus storm, now we can hit restart. We haven’t forgotten how to do the stuff that made us rich.

Lots can still go wrong. A particularly fragile part is the financial system. But I’m pretty positive that we can make it work again.

Photo Credit Steve Gerst. We had rain showers during our hike this morning and Steve got this photo.

Idea credit to Fred Hochberg author of Trade is Not a Four Letter Word

WWIT = What Was I Thinking

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WWIT About COVID-19 Update

On March 4 I predicted that:

The Corona Virus is not going to be a terrible world-wide epidemic.

The Corona Virus is not going to cause a world-wide depression.

And again on March 24 I made some specific predictions about number of deaths, less than three million and the Dow not lower than 14,500. I’m going to stick with these predictions. Even in the eye of this terrible storm I’m pretty sure that we will survive and thrive. And it will be to some extent because of the institutions that everybody is so ready to criticize today. The WHO, 3M, the CDC the political institutions.

Special thanks to the Queen of England for her reassuring words.

Is it time to get back into the market?

WWIT: What Was I Thinking

Photo is of rain and poppies along the Grand Canal near the Pueblo Grande Museum on March 12, 2020 BC (Before Corona)