So here is the math.  Romney will probably get roughly the same number of votes as John McCain did in 2008 but he will win.  And the reason is pretty simple.  Many of the “enthusiasm voters” who heard “Hope and Change” four years ago are going to stay at home this cycle.  About eight million people voted for the first time in 2008 for Obama.  They are the young and minorities but now they are disillusioned and busy looking for jobs.  Many of them won’t bother to vote in 2012 and Romney will win.

The sign I saw most in the rural northeast.

Now many of you still don’t want to believe me.  And I don’t blame you.  So try this test, privately if you want:

• Try to think of anybody you know who is significantly more enthusiastic about President Obama than they were about Candidate Obama.
• Now try to think of anyone you know who is significantly less enthusiastic.

Which number is higher.  Oh dear.

But you say it isn’t about raw votes its about the electoral college.  Right you are and the New York Times has a tool that you can use to figure out how the electoral college will turn out.  TRY IT HERE.  According to my calculation Romney doesn’t have to win Ohio to win the Presidency.  But try it yourself by clicking on the Make your own Scenario link

And finally read this weeks Peggy Noonan article from the WSJ.  This is Romney’s election to lose.