Chance

“I worked hard and I’ve got some talent, but there are a lot of hard-working, talented people out there. There was an element of chance to it, this element of serendipity.”

Barak Obama

Quoted in Thanks a Thousand by A.J. Jacobs

Spring Fever

Who will be demonstrating in your town this spring?  Last year about this time the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations were getting started and were replicating around the nation as the “Occupy Anything” movement.  It is almost spring again.  What will send young people to the streets this year?

Non sequitur photo

If a Republican were president it would almost certainly be the administrations Predator Drone attacks on US citizens without due process.  But a popular Democrat can get by on this one.  Imagine if George Bush were doing it…

It might be the undocumented going to the streets to protest for a pathway to citizenship, I would understand, although I’m not sure it won’t be counter productive.  It might be better to have a stealth campaign where everyone just approaches their friends,neighbors, coworkers and employers and asks for their support.  But these things are unpredictable.

It might be the Tea Party protesting the negative unintended consequences of “Obama Care” that are starting to reverberate through the economy.  We just had a 25% increase in our health care premiums.

My money is on the young over trained under employed intelligentsia.  They have time on their hands and real gripes.  Like no jobs.  What their specific grievance will be is anybody’s guess.

Who do you think will go to the barricades this spring?

Charges of Racism

I was at a meeting last week and out of the blue a few of the more liberal democrats in the group went off on a rant about how racist the recent presidential election was.  Now I didn’t see it that way and I asked for some examples that showed racism.  The only two presented were lawn signs that said “Believe in America” and the slogan “The Makers versus The Takers.” To me these are no more racist slogans than “Forward,” the Obama campaign slogan, is a communist slogan.

I don’t really know what to make of this.  Charges of racism should never be made lightly and I took it personally because I supported Mitt Romney and so apparently in my liberal friends eyes I am in the same camp as racists.  Seeing other people as racist because they disagree with you does not increase the civility of the debate but it does allow you to dismiss the real arguments that the other side has without considering them.

Arguments like:

  • The need for some fiscal sanity so we stop borrowing from the future.  The federal government can’t do everything for everybody.
  • The need for reform in “entitlements.”  The situation has changed, people live longer and consume more healthcare.  Change the programs.  They are full of perverse incentives.
  • The need to end the monopoly of the public employees unions so, for instance, poor people can have school choice like the rich people do.

On the Rational Immigration site I wrote some advise to the Republicans on what I thought that they should do to get back in the game.  It is unlikely that they can take it and keep their coalition together.  The Democrats have a similar problem.  Their coalition of public employees, well-to-do liberals and ethnic groups is frail at best.  The country is very divided on lots of issues but I don’t think that there are many racists on either side any more.  I still don’t know what to make of this.

 

 

Democracy’s Flaw

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government.

It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years.”

Alexander Fraser Tytler.

Scottish Lawyer

1747 – 1813

Simon Eats Crow

In one of my largest mistakes ever I publicly and loudly predicted that President Obama would lose last nights election. (My June Prediction) In fact I predicted that he would lose by a large margin.  (My prediction on Monday 11/5) I was wrong and now I’m eating crow (while drinking vodka), and paying off my gambling debts. Scott S, Mark E, John L and Sharon G, you will all be hearing from me.

This is a crow substitute.

I wish President Obama wisdom and luck.  He certainly had the street smarts to put together a coalition of class warriors and ethnic groups that was just large enough to carry the day.  In his first term he failed to fulfill his promise to Latinos and the economy failed to respond to his efforts to revive it.  I hope he learned from these mistakes. I’ll be writing more about the immigrant issue on Rational Immigration.

Republicans cannot win going forward unless they accept that there will be abortions, that immigrants are a good thing and that smaller government won’t work if we also want a larger military and farm subsidies.  Time to adjust.

I will be spending some time retraining as a prognosticator (no I’m not going to stop) and adjusting my investments to recognize the new tax regime that President Obama will be now be allowed to implement.

Final Exam

Tomorrow is the final exam on my June prediction that Obama will not be re-elected.  I’m still confident that Romney will win and I do think that he is the best choice for the country but I don’t expect any miracles to come out of the election.

Our lives will be effected very little.  If Romney wins taxes will go up, abortion will still be legal, law students will have to buy their own contraceptives, domestic energy production will grow and the Federal Government will expand slightly more slowly.

Pasadena City Hall

What a great country we live in where transitions of power can happen without violence.

Friday Politics II

“Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured… but not everyone must prove they are a citizen.”

Now add this, “Many of those who refuse, or are unable, to prove they are citizens will receive free insurance paid for by those who are forced to buy insurance because they are citizens.”

Ben Stein

Author of What Would Ben Stein Do?

Free Cell Phones

Last week the conservative news media was playing a story about a woman who was voting for Obama because he was giving out free cell phones.  It sounded unbelievable to me so I looked into it.  And found out that it is true.  The administration is giving poor people free cell phones.  Here is a  link to the story in the Dayton Ohio newspaper.  The number of people who are taking advantage of the program in Ohio has nearly doubled in the last year.

Does this remind you of the free ice cream story I told here a few weeks ago.

Or the famous quote often attributed to playwright George Bernard Shaw:

“A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend upon the support of Paul.”

All this at a time when the Federal Government is spending Three Billion Dollars a day more than its revenue.  It is crazy behavior.  Which reminds me of my favorite saying: