The Replicator’s Dilemma

Imagine that an inventor like Bill Gates, Henry Ford or Thomas Edison invented a machine that created products at the atomic level. That this machine could replicate anything at extremely low cost and that because it is a replicator it could replicate itself. In this world that we are imagining everybody could have a surplus of goods at very low cost. This utopian idea immediately raises a difficult question: “What will all of the people do when replicators make all of the stuff we need.”

This question is not some idle fantasy. Semiconductors, robotic assembly and plastics are already making it possible for the poorest people to use high quality manufactured goods. They have cell phone in Kenya and Burma.

In the early 20th century farming went through a revolution that lowered the number of people who needed to be on the farm from about 35% to about 3% of our population and now we have more to eat than ever before. Manufacturing is going through the same revolution. In 1950 about 30% of Americans worked in factories now it is about 15% and shrinking. Yes some of the jobs have gone to China and other low cost areas of the world but many of the jobs have just vanished. Semiconductors have almost eliminated the printed circuit board industry and injection molded plastics are inexorably replacing fabricated metal and wood products. Think about children’s toys and plastic chairs.

So what will all of the people do? The history of what happened as a result of the farming revolution is a good indicator. The average work week in the 20th century dropped from about 55 hours to about 40 hours. We started to have a five day work week. We dramatically increased the number of holidays and we invented the idea of paid vacation. The average number of years people stayed in school increased by between four and eight years depending on which source you believe. All these things happened organically as markets adjusted to the new surpluses of labor and wealth created by the agricultural revolution.

And now as materials and robotic assembly technologies are are getting us ever closer to the replicator we again are going to have to adjust to the decreased amount of labor required from each of us to maintain and grow our prosperity. At the end of the tunnel after all of the arguing about distribution, fairness and sharing there is no doubt that almost everyone will have more leisure time. More vacation, shorter work weeks, less time in the work force. This is not good or bad it just is.

If people have more disposable wealth and more time what will they do? If we can figure this out and get into the growth industries that this new reality will spurn our probability of success will increased. Again looking at history gives us some clues. As people in the affluent area of the world gained more leisure time in the last century they spent their time and money finding thrills. From new experiences like travel and learning and from adrenaline rushes like gambling and adventures. People with more time and money to spend will spend it on entertainment that titillates and thrills them. They will also seek to belong to groups that give them identity like “Dodgers Fans” or Apple Users.

How will we get to this new plateau of leisure? It will be fitfully. We had to go through the great depression to get to the prosperity of the late 20th century. How these rewards are shared will create political dilemmas but a rising tide raises all ships. The healthcare and medical industries still need to have their productivity revolutions. But the 21st century replicator is a huge force for good that will create a better world for all and incredible opportunities for those who seize the future.