In 1980 Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter a sitting president. This was not because Reagan was so great it was because President Carter had not been a good leader. He was a good man who was unprepared to deal with the complexity of the world, the poor economy at home and the hostility of the press. His fate was sealed by his serial bungling of the Iran hostage crisis.
In 2020 Biden will defeat Donald Trump a sitting president. This is not because Biden is so great it is because President Trump has been a bad leader. He was a celebrity who won the presidency because of flukes in the Republican primary system, and the disgust of portions of the electorate with the status quo politics represented by Hillary Clinton. Trump was unprepared for his job and didn’t bother to try and learn it. His approach to the media increased their hostility to him. His fate was sealed by his serial bungling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Republicans will spend the next dozen or so years fighting a rearguard action against an ever growing federal bureaucracy. The conditions of homelessness, poor education, expensive medical costs and public angst will continue almost unabated under the Democrats, just like they did under President Obama and President Trump.
One positive result will be that the crisis feeling about the COVID-19 pandemic will abate as the media turns its attention elsewhere and eventually there will be a vaccine.
There will be successors to the “Tea Party” and “the Resistance” that will continue to make the political spectrum more noise than substance. And I and most of America will continue to live reasonably contented lives without spending too much time thinking about politics.