When the USSR broke up, Ukraine (one of the pieces in the breakup) had nuclear weapons. In exchange for promises that they would be defended against Russian aggression the Ukrainian government gave up their nukes.  Fast forward a decade and Russia invaded the Crimea and the West (led by President Obama) did almost nothing. Russia then started to nibble away at eastern Ukraine. And again the West, the supposed guarantors of Ukraine’s  sovereignty, was silent. This is complicated stuff and I don’t pretend to know every detail. But what is the foreign policy lesson that a country like Poland should learn from this? Most likely: “The West won’t protect us. Perhaps we should get our own nuclear weapons to defend ourselves”

The overall lesson for me in these scenarios is the nations in charge must signal early what is acceptable behavior and then enforce the consequences. We should have learned this from Prime Minister Chamberlain at Munich, President Obama’s “Red Line” in Syria and from four Presidents continuing to allow North Korea’s bad behavior.

We know it is not in the best interest of the peaceful people in the world to tolerate aggression. The best way to stop it is signal clearly, loudly and early what is unacceptable.