“The knowledge we get by tinkering, via trial and error, experience, and the workings of time, in other words, contact with the earth, is vastly superior to that obtained through reasoning”

Nassim Taleb

Author of Skin in the Game

Taleb like the heuristic approach to the future. He believes that the future will evolve unpredictably, so don’t bother to spend too much time trying to predict it. Just be ready for the worst case.