We all know about the recent discovery of vast amounts of natural gas and oils shale in North America and Northern Europe.   What we haven’t thought about yet are the tertiary affects of this discovery. It is clear that all these new btu’s will change the economics of fossil fuels for the next hundred years.  But all of this inexpensive oil and gas sloshing around will also have big a affect in many other areas. It will probably gives us enough time to get controlled fusion or economical solar energy working but they will also affect current geopolitics:

• The relative power of the Arab kings, mullahs and dictators will decrease.
• The relative power of the global warming/environmentalists movements will decrease.
• The poorest countries in South Asia and Africa will be able to modernize economically.

The new supplies are predominately being found in developed countries with developed infrastructure and the rule of law.  So they can be developed without the need for despots to ensure a return on investment.  Over time the decrease in the need for kings, mullahs and dictators means that there will be less of them.  This is good news for the citizens of places like Iran and Iraq.

Global Warming alarm-ism is predicated on the old scare tactic of “we have to do something time is running out.” But time isn’t running out.  This new cleaner fuel gives us time to raise the standard of living of everyone in the world, stabilize the worlds population and develop new technologies.  What a piece of good luck.

And these new btu’s mean that Africa will boom.  The per-capita income in sub-Saharan Africa has doubled in the past six years and it will double again in the next six.  Without the danger of energy shortages Africa will start to self generate the types of surpluses that can be spent on irrigation systems, roads and potable water supplies.  Watch for the first Nike Factory in Africa.  The countries that will succeed first will be stable and have enforceable contracts.  The question to try and answer is which ones have the chance to be the next Singapore and figure out how to make some investments.

Life is Good!

Geopolitics I: Goading Iran