Who will win the trade war between the US and China. I explored data from the markets and it looks like Chinese markets are a lot more concerned than US markets.

The orange line is the S&P 500 and the blue line is the Shanghai Exchange Index. the period is a year. In the last few weeks the Shanghai index has dropped much more than the S&P. At the same time that the US President is imposing new tariffs. Apparently he has got their market scared. Which gives the US additional leverage in the negotiations.This is not scientific. I haven’t looked for other causes of the fluctuation in the markets and I’m not saying that markets are always right. But looking at the US market response to the trade war without comparing it to how Chinese markets are doing is missing an important piece of perspective.

I got the graph from Charles Schwab publicly available data.