Israel Hamas Theory

Posted on by Simon

Last week Hamas increased rocket attacks on Israel from Gaza and the Israeli airforce retaliated massively.

Why?  It might be one of those random events that Taleb write about in The Black Swan or it might be a Machiavellian attempts to solve one of the real threats to world peace.  I have a theory on the latter and I wanted to put it in writing so you can check and see if I was right later on.

My theory is that Israel is attacking Hamas with the tacit approval of the USA and others.  They are trying to get Syria and Iran to overtly attempt to help Hamas.  If they do help and get caught then the West and Israel will have an excuse to retaliate.  And in the process of retaliating they can take out Iran’s nuclear facilities.  If Syria and Iran don’t attempt to come to Hamas’s aid, it is likely that Hamas will be decimated.  It seems like a win-win for Israel.

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5 thoughts on “Israel Hamas Theory”

  1. Simon:

    Your hypothesis is good to a point.

    First, the approval of the USA is overt, not tacit, other political entities are by their cultural nature more circumspect.

    Second, if I understand correctly, the use of aerial bombardment over Iran carries higher than normal risk because it may be posited that Iran has been pumping up its air defenses significantly.

    Third, one must differentiate between posturing and providing aid and comfort. This is often a more subtle nuance, and requires a greater and more educated understanding of the historic Islamic culture
    and world view, than we have seen coming out of Washington over the last eight years.

    Fourth, while Hamas may be decapitated (not decimated) the infectious pus which decades of isolation has created within the sequestered Palestinian community will need to be neutralized of significantly dissipated. The fact that the balance of the world Arab community has cruelly refused to allow the immigration and societal normalization of the 1948 displaced Palestinians is a shame and a slander.

    Fifth, Israel, too, will need to swallow some difficult political pills long before the phrase “win-win” will have currency. However, Israel does have the cultural capacity to do just that.

    David

  2. While I do accept that there is both tacit and overt international approval of the retaliatory attacks on Hamas, I believe it is to some degree because the world believes the fight will be contained within Gaza and Israel. I do not believe there is any appetite for an attack and subsequent war with Iran either in the US, (within the general public or within the US Congress) or the other major nations in Europe or the Middle East at this time. One could argue that international governments are hoping that explicit support by Iran of Hamas would “justify” an attack on Iran by Israel and that the world would let Israel do the dirty work – but I believe the risk of the altercation escalating beyond that is too great. Which leads back to the question of whether we are prepared to enter into a military fight with Iran. I don’t think we are economically, militarily or politically. Moreover, trying to wage a war with Iran, with Afghanistan and with Iraq at the same time would require a reinstatement of the draft and that is not going to fly today.

    I also think Bush is too weak and his international policies too poorly regarded for him to be the initiator of a retaliatory war on Iran and or Syria. And I want to believe he is not so Machiavellian that he would set Obama up to have to step in.

    I think Israel may be hoping tat Iran will worry tat your premise is correct and therefore not step up its shipments and support for a long enough time for Israel to inflict severe damage and then pull out and go back to “normal” with a weakened adversary. That is probably te best case but tragic scenario.

    Gretchen

  4. Andrew
    This means either I am in good company in my error or that great minds think alike.
    This is a testable hypothesis.
    Simon

  5. Gretchen
    I’m reading Black Swan right now so I’m biased to believe that world leaders don’t have a clue what they are doing. Time will tell if my theory about intent is correct.
    Why would it be “tragic” if Hamas were weakened to the point that they couldn’t send rockets into civilian targets in Israel anymore?
    simon

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